Our Habitable Capacity I

An easy-to-understand concept to help humanity avoid calamity

This article is also available at PleaseAtMost2.org

Scientists who monitor the effects of greenhouse gases on Earth’s biosphere are frustrated with the people of the world as well as with the U.S. Supreme Court’s lack of understanding of the peril we are facing. I believe this is partly due to the weak words used. “Climate change” should be “climate crisis” and “global warming” should be “global heating.” Concepts such as fractions of a degree increase in temperature and yearly rise of sea levels measured in millimeters do not convey the needed urgency.

In contrast, each of the words in the phrase “habitable capacity” is well understood by the general public.

If one looks on the web, scientists have estimated Earth’s habitable capacity in the past. These estimates vary widely. Around half of them indicate our habitable capacity is less than 8 billion, higher than the estimated total population of humans in early 2023. Particularly for the many studies done prior to the climate crisis being “noticeable,” was there any consideration given to the quality of human habitation with the reality of millions of people existing in pathetic housing in the sprawling slums of big cities in most of the developing world, as well as millions of refugees?

Urgency to project new estimates of habitable capacity

The U.N. or a foundation needs to task a couple of dozen appropriate scientists to take a month or two to individually answer the question: What is the earth’s current habitable capacity? For humanity to have one number to focus on, a majority of these scientists must agree the estimated current habitable capacity is X billion plus or minus 1 billion. Next, they should forecast the estimate to be Y billion plus or minus 1 billion in 2030 and Z billion plus or minus 1.25 billion in 2050.

Given what the entire world is experiencing — such as extended heat and droughts, forest fires, floods, and storms year-round — habitable capacity will be in decline for the foreseeable future, making Y less than X, and Z considerably less than Y.

Rather than waiting for this to be done, let’s speculate with a high conservative estimate of X being 9 billion at the end of 2023. Let’s also speculate that until 2050 the earths habitable capacity will only decline by a paltry 50 million per year:

• Y then is 9–7(0.05) = 8.65 billion and
• Z then is 8.65–20(0.05) = 7.65 billion, less than our current population.

The U.N. world population forecast is 8 billion for 2022 and over 9.1 billion for 2040.

Just scratching the surface of this concept, we easily see the risk of the world’s population exceeding habitable capacity in the first half of the 21st century. Once this happens and the gap widens, the people of the word face uncertain calamities much worse than the present.